Shenzhen ELE Lighting Co., Ltd.

The ASPs of packaged LEDs, which fell on average by 25% in 2011 (Table 1), have continued to drop, perhaps by another 20% already in the first half of 2012. While continued drops in price are fueling market adoption of LEDs in various applications, there are still markets for which cost is considered too high for mainstream adoption, such as replacement lamps. The exception has been in Japan, where a rapid increase in LED replacement lamp sales occurred following the Fukushima nuclear power-plant accident.

However, we expect the LED components used in the replacement lamps market, which grew to $555 million in 2011, to contract somewhat to $484 million in 2012 due to unsustainable market growth in Japan. The revenue for lamps however is expected to grow from $2.1 billion in 2011 to $2.6 in 2012. For specific details and a breakdown of trends by replacement lamp type, see the Strategies Unlimited report entitled “LED Replacement Lamp Market Analysis and Forecast, 2012".

 

FIG. 2.

Secondly, LED component makers are broadening their product lines to include, in particular, multichip packages that include small arrays in chip-sized packages as well as larger chip-on-board (COB) arrays. The chip-sized arrays reduce the demand for thermal management while simplifying the design of directional luminaires such as downlights. Companies making such multichip packages include Bridgelux, Citizen, Cree, Nichia, Osram, Philips Lumileds, Samsung and Seoul Semiconductor.

Thirdly, LED light engines are also simplifying the design of LED luminaires. We recognize that LED modules with and without an integrated driver (definition of LED light engine by Zhaga) have been introduced by established suppliers such as Philips, GE, Cree and Bridgelux as well as start-up companies.

For applications that require diffused light, the industry is now often replacing high-power LEDs with medium-power LEDs. We expect InGaN medium-power LEDs to be the fastest growing market segment by package type in 2012, though high-power LEDs will make up the largest percentage of revenues sold (Fig. 2). High-power LEDs will continue to be used in applications including street lights, flashlights, recessed lights and PAR replacement lamps.

 

FIG. 3.

For omnidirectional applications, remote-phosphor technologies from Philips and Intematix are being used to improve the efficacy of converting blue LEDs to white light.

Standards continue to accelerate the market transformation to solid-state lighting, which is occurring more rapidly than previous transitions such as the change to fluorescent and compact fluorescent lighting technologies. This is partly due to the efforts of organizations such as the US Department of Energy (DOE) and organizations in Europe that have encouraged standardization. The LEDs in Lighting report covers critical developments by Zhaga in light engines, IES TM-21 and LM-82, as well as the harmonization of global standards through the IEA 4E SSL Annex.

Initial system cost has long been a barrier to LED lighting adoption, but this has been offset in many cases by utility or energy-efficiency rebates. Specific lighting applications have reached acceptable return-on-investment levels based on utility rebates in the case of outdoor area lighting and energy efficiency rebates in the case of retail display lighting. Energy efficiency rebates, combined with the benefits of controls, are making industrial applications affordable.

About the Author

VRINDA BHANDARKAR is Director of Research, LED Lighting at Strategies Unlimited. ELLA SHUM is Director of LED Research at Strategies Unlimited. LAURA PETERS is Senior Technical Editor of LEDs Magazine.

DOE's Caliper report 19 compares LED pendants

12 Nov 2012

The latest Caliper report on LED pendant luminaires suggests that LED pendants are more efficacious than their fluorescent counterparts, though they can be improved in other areas.

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has announced the completion of the Series 19 testing of a group of nine LED linear pendants and a collection of 11 linear pendant products available in both an LED and fluorescent versions. Fluorescent products typically offer more different configurations, whereas LED are typically only available in one or two lumen packages. The report suggests that, moving forward, LED products would benefit from a wider range of lumen packages.     Luminous efficacy of LED linear pendants is often higher than the efficacy of their fluorescent counterparts. The efficacy for the surveyed LED luminaires reached up to 85 lm/W, with measured efficacy for the products going as high as 79 lm/W. Only two products were less than 50 lm/W. In comparison, the surveyed fluorescent products were between 35 and 75 lm/W. For products with clear or prismatic lenses, the LED versions did not closely match the luminous intensity distribution of their fluorescent counterparts. However, matching fluorescent is not necessarily a goal; a different distribution and appearance can be the result of delivering light more effectively where it is needed, and avoiding zones where it can cause glare, for example. The color quality of fluorescent systems is based on the lamp, which is interchangeable and thus easy to change over the lifetime of the luminaire. In contrast, LED arrays are relatively fixed for the lifetime of the luminaire and the only choices are those available from the luminaire manufacturer.